Key Research Findings About Recidivism

Recidivism measures permeate many of NIJ's research projects; they have been used in evaluations of drug courts, substance abuse treatment programs, batterer interventions, programs that vary the supervision levels on probation and many more. Key research has generally focused on:

• Prisons
• Drug Courts
• Community Corrections

Prisons

NIJ researchers examined the impact of the rate of crime prior to prison and how prison affected crime post release. The method was applied to the same datasets used by the Bureau of Justice Statistics for its special report, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994. NIJ's researchers found that—

• Criminal history prior to incarceration reliably predicted whether or not incarceration would deter reoffending within three years after release.
  • For 56 percent of the offender sample, incarceration had the predicted deterrent effect (that is, they did not recidivate within the three-year period). 
  • Forty percent of the sample reoffended as predicted from their criminal history before incarceration. 
• For a small percentage of offenders (4 percent), incarceration had a criminogenic effect, increasing the rate of crime after release from prison. 
• Supervision after release did not seem to lower likelihood of re-arrest.

These findings suggest that an analysis of criminal history prior to incarceration may help corrections practitioners identify who is and is not likely to be deterred from post-release reoffending. [1]

Effects of security level assignment in prison. Researchers have established a relationship between the security level inmates are assigned during incarceration and the recidivism rate after they are released from prison.

The theory is that differential placement may affect post-release crime rates (recidivism) but not necessarily as intended. Higher security prisons are more punitive and, therefore, should decrease recidivism among inmates who have equivalent propensities to commit crime. Research shows, however, that being exposed to inmates who have higher propensities to crime may increase criminal behavior or reinforce antisocial attitudes. [2]

Drug Courts

NIJ has sponsored major studies evaluating whether drug court programs successfully reduce offender recidivism. Recently published findings from a major study known as the Multisite Adult Drug Court Evaluation show that drug courts do reduce offender recidivism; several factors having to do mostly with treatment and the judge's role need to be present for this result. [3]

Community Corrections

Reducing recidivism is a key goal for probation and parole programs. Researchers have found that some probationary practices result in oversupervising low-risk probationers while underserving those with the greatest needs (usually the high-risk repeat offenders), which leads to greater recidivism.

NIJ has partnered with other agencies to develop and evaluate model community corrections programs that use evidence-based practices. These include proper offender assessment tools, continuous organizational monitoring using performance-based measures, and different interventions for low-risk offenders than for high-risk offenders. [4]