NCJ Number
138499
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 32 Issue: 3 Dated: (Summer 1992) Pages: 340-351
Date Published
1992
Length
12 pages
Annotation
Forty years of annual data, 20 years of quarterly data, and 10 years of monthly data for recorded notifiable crime in England and Wales were analyzed to test the routine activity explanation of the temperature/crime relation.
Abstract
The results of the final regression models displayed consistent and strong evidence of a statistical relationship between temperature and crime. This was apparent in both monthly and quarterly series for personal crime, theft, burglary, and criminal damage. No effect was apparent for burglary. In regard to the annual series, there was insufficient variability in annual weather data to test for an effect of weather on crime of the size indicated by the monthly and quarterly results. During months and quarters in which the weather was unseasonably warm in comparison with the immediately preceding months and quarters, the level of crime was likely to be higher than it otherwise would be in comparison with the previous month or quarter. The simplest possible interpretation of this relationship between changes is that an underlying relationship exists between levels of temperature and crime. It is proposed that in England and Wales higher temperatures cause people to spend more time out of the home. Time outside the home has been shown to increase the risk of criminal victimization for most types of crime. 57 tables, 24 references, and 2 appendixes