NCJ Number
101796
Journal
Security World Volume: 23 Issue: 5 Dated: (May 1986) Pages: 58-64
Date Published
1986
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This article examines factors that may be contributing to the declining crime rate for 1981-1984.
Abstract
Demographic factors, specifically the passage of the baby boomers past the age of greatest risk for criminality, may account for 20 to 30 percent of the decrease in crime rates. Programs such as Neighborhood Watch also have contributed by catching offenders outright or by reducing their opportunities. Criminal justice factors that have probably contributed to recent crime trends include increased police clearance rates, higher conditional probability of incarceration, and the incapacitative effects of imprisonment. While such factors as demographics, public attitudes, and criminal justice policy will influence crime trends in the future, prediction of crime rates is difficult because of the complex relationships among these factors and others, such as umemployment and prison expansion. 5 graphs.