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National Council on Crime and Delinquency's (NCCD's) Prophet Simulation Model: User's Manual and Quick Reference Guide

NCJ Number
Date Published
77 pages
The National Council on Crime and Delinquency (NCCD) has published a user's manual to accompany "The Prophet," a new generation of simulation software produced by NCCD. The Prophet provides a foundation for modeling the accumulation and flow of cases through a correctional system.
The Prophet consists of two modules -- the Simulation Engine and the User Interface. This manual introduces the basic concepts applied in the program, the design philosophy, and installation instructions. It defines the various function keys and screens and provides a step-by-step guide on setting up a model, running a simulation, and writing reports. The Prophet replicates a correctional system by animating the system model through the use of three basic building blocks: ID groups, statuses, and flows. The program can be used to simulate single stage and multi-stage models. Using this program, institutional planners can project future prison populations, policy makers can forecast the impact of alterations in current laws or administrative practices, and researchers can examine the effects of specific practices and external factors. 3 appendixes