Crime in Sweden - Causality, Control Effects and Economic Efficiency

An important aspect of the analysis is a test of whether law enforcement resources are allocated in accordance with rules that will yield economic efficiency across communities and crime categories. Crime is viewed both in the aggregate and by broad offense categories (personal crimes, property crimes, and traffic offenses). The study's data base was a cross section of 24 Swedish counties for 1975-78. Modeling was similar to previous studies evaluating variation in deterrence or control effects that stem from variations in conviction probabilities and penalties. Social and economic factors investigated for crime-causing effects were broken family relationships, alien population, and alcohol consumption levels, as well as lack of employment opportunities. Highway accidents, an outcome of traffic offenses, were viewed as caused by the level of driving, traffic density, and other factors reflecting the driving environment and such illegal behavior as drunken driving. Results say more for the effects of law enforcement in the control of offenses and accidents than they do for other causal factors. Results with respect to police effectiveness in using resources are also impressive. Findings related to allocative efficiency across communities and among crime classes are not what economists would hope to find and must indicate that law enforcement authorities have not been under pressure to consider crime mix or manpower-allocation efficiency across communities. Findings are compared with earlier results from U.S. studies, and policy implications are discussed. Tabular data, 20 footnotes, and 30 references are provided. Mathematical equations used in the study are appended.