Criminal Background Checks and Recidivism: Bounding the Causal Impact

Using institutional knowledge about the New York State Department of Health's screening process, this study based structural assumptions on potential outcomes for different subsamples in study data, which partially identifies the Average Treatment Effects. The study found a 0-2.2 percentage-point increase in the likelihood of subsequent arrests caused by employment denial, with substantial heterogeneity across the sample. Specifically, the study found that the a priori highest risk individuals were most likely to be impacted by a loss of employment opportunity based on their criminal background. Policy implications of these results are discussed. (publisher abstract modified)