Testing Cohen's Routine Activity Theory - An Analytic Scheme

Cohen's theory posits a relationship between changes in ecological structures and fluctuations in national crime rates. Its main thesis is that variations in daily work and leisure behaviors increase or decrease the likelihood of occurrence of conditions necessary to victimization (i.e., situational opportunities for offending and risk-reducing factors). To test this thesis, it is proposed to use victimization data from the 1977-81 National Crime Survey. The relationship between demographic, neighborhood, and social factors and burglary victimization will be examined using log linear analysis and the LISREL computer program for estimating parameters of causal models that are confounded by measurement error. The combination of the unique data set and analytic strategy permits a crucial test of routine activity theory. Results will have potential implications for crime prediction and crime prevention policy. Tables and approximately 105 references.