NCJ Number
190651
Date Published
September 2001
Length
52 pages
Annotation
This paper discusses asymmetric and terrorist attacks with chemical weapons.
Abstract
The paper states that the current threat of conventional attack was notably higher than the risk of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attack, and the risk of relatively low levels of CBRN attack was notably higher than the risk of high levels of CBRN attack. The analysis of the nature and lethality of the threat changes considerably if states conduct covert CBRN attacks, or give them to proxies or independent movements. It also changes over time as technology makes biological weapons more available, and as the time horizon for estimating the risk of some form of high level CBRN attack is extended to the quarter of the country that U.S. planners must consider in shaping long-term programs and research and development activities. The paper examines the problem of determining future methods of attack and the needed response, with illustrative attack scenarios using conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. It examines chemical weapons as a means of attack, specifically: (1) impact and variety of possible chemical weapons; (2) probable lethality and effectiveness of chemical attacks; (3) methods of delivery; (4) detection and interception; and (5) acquisition. It also considers the impact of technological change, and the political and psychological effects. It includes Department of Defense estimates of potential national threat intentions involving chemical weapons from China, India, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, and Sudan. Notes, tables, figures