Crime and Economic Trends

• NCJ Number: 126670
• Author(s): T B Marvell; C E Moody Jr
• Date Published: 1988
• Length: 41 pages
• Grant Number(s): 88-IJ-CX-0045
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Theoretical)

Annotation

A pooled time series, cross section research design was used to explore the relationship between the crime categories reported by the Uniform Crime Report and economic trends as measured by real personal income, gross State product, and unemployment rates.

Abstract

The model combines data from several units over several years. State level data were used; 49 states over a 12 to 17 year period. The fixed effects model, a standard econometric regression procedure, was used to analyze the time series, cross section data. The same trends were evident for all seven types of crime, except possibly murder. The year dummy coefficients generally increased through 1975, declined slightly in 1976 or 1977, rose through 1980, declined through 1983, and then began to increase in 1984 or 1985. Some powerful force or forces dominated time trends causing broad changes even after controlling for demographic and economic trends. This factor could not be identified. The evidence was strong that crime has a substantial impact on the economy, but the economy most likely has little impact on crime. When economic variables were regressed against property crime, particularly burglary, a highly significant negative relationship emerged. The weaker positive relationship emerged for violent crime. A selected bibliography is included. 10 tables and 1 appendix