Modeling Specialization and Escalation in the Criminal Career

• NCJ Number: 141100
• Date Published: 1993
• Author(s): C L Britt III
• Length: 24 pages
• Grant Number(s): 89-IJ-CX-0031
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)

Annotation

A class of log-linear models developed for studying social mobility tables with matched categories for one or more groups to crime-type-switching tables are used as tests of specialization and escalation in the criminal career. These models are applied to arrest data on a sample of felony offenders from Michigan.

Abstract

Here, the QS model, containing parameters that are directly interpretable as indicators of either specialization or escalation, was applied to data previously tested for specialization; the results revealed significant differences in the pattern and level of specialization when compared to traditional indices. This model provided clear evidence that, while a small group of offenders increased the severity of their offenses across their criminal careers, many offenders decreased the severity of their criminal activity. This was the first statistical test focusing on differences between particular subgroups. The findings showed that black and white offenders exhibited identical patterns of specialization but different patterns of escalation. The model could be applied to groups differing in age, gender, or offense transition. 5 notes and 27 references