Predicting Criminality - Crime File Series Study Guide

• NCJ Number: 100748
• Author(s): P Hoffman
• Date Published: 1986
• Length: 4 pages
• Grant Number(s): 84-IJ-CX-0031
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored

Annotation

This study guide, which accompanies the ''Crime File' videotape on predicting criminality, describes the computations used by the Federal Parole Commission to determine the risk of recidivism, the prediction factors identified in the Rand Corporation's California study, and the criticisms and justifications for predicting criminality.

Abstract

The risk computations of the Federal Parole Commission are centered in the offender's prior criminal convictions, prior criminal commitments for longer than 30 days, age at the time of the new offense, the length of time at liberty since the last commitment, whether under supervision or on escape status at the time of the most recent offense, and record of heroin dependence. The Rand Corporation study, based on self-reported crimes by 2,000 inmates, associates recidivism with prior conviction for same charge, incarceration more than 50 percent of the preceding 2 years, confinement in a State juvenile facility, drug use in preceding 2 years, juvenile drug use, and employed less than 50 percent of preceding 2 years. Critics of criminality prediction argue that prediction methods are flawed and that it is unfair to base punishment on future behavior. Proponents hold that the community has a right to be protected from further crimes by the offender and that prediction is used only with convicted offenders and within the range of what would otherwise be fair punishment for the offense. 6 references.