This study examines the argument that there is "collective wisdom" in the perceptions of collectivities of humans, even if the views of individuals are inaccurate.
Prior research indicates that individual perceptions of the risk of punishment for criminal behavior are unrelated to actual risks of punishment in the areas in which individuals reside. It could be argued, however, that the relevant policy question is whether variation in actual punishment levels affects average perceptions of risk among aggregates. Scholars have argued that there is "collective wisdom" in the perceptions of collectivities of humans, even if the views of individuals are inaccurate. This thesis is tested using survey data on individual perceptions of the risks of legal punishment for crimes, aggregated up to the level of county populations. The authors find that the aggregate perceptions of county populations are generally not related to actual county levels of the certainty, severity, and swiftness of punishment. Thus, neither the perceptions of individuals nor the average perceptions of populations have any significant association with actual risks of punishment. Abstract published by arrangement with Sage Journals.