NCJ Number
79202
Journal
Journal of Legal Studies Volume: 10 Issue: 2 Dated: (June 1981) Pages: 381-396
Date Published
1981
Length
16 pages
Annotation
Based on a sample of felony arrests made in four New York boroughs in 1971, this study examined the influence of factors such as the amount of bond, court delays, and type of offense on bail jumping.
Abstract
Individual researchers have argued that reducing court delays and increasing bonds should reduce bail forfeiture rates, but no study has incorporated both factors. A statistical model of rational bail jumping was constructed which discovered that increasing bail bond does decrease the probability of bail jumping while court delays have ambiguous effects. Empirical tests were conducted on a sample of adult offenders who were predominantly young, male, and black. The tests considered expected losses from appearing at trial, sex, type of offense, race, and court delays as variables which could influence the decision to jump bail. Data analysis confirmed that increasing bail bond reduced bail jumping, but court delays had a negligible effect. Addicts, grand larcency offenders, and drug dealers were most likely to jump bail, but releasing a person on recognizance lowered the likelihood of bail jumping. To control for selection bias, an equation for the probability of release from prison was estimated. The results were essentially unchanged, except that longer court delays were found to reduce bail jumping. A possible explanation is that the decision not to jump bail may be made in connection with the calculation to appear at one's hearing, plead guilty, and hope for a reduced punishment. These findings suggest that the often expressed fears that reform of the bail system will result in rampant crime and high levels of bail jumping are unfounded. Statistical formulas, tables, and 16 footnotes are included.