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Measuring and Modeling Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

NCJ Number
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 25 Issue: 3 Dated: September 2009 Pages: 325-339
M.B. Short; M.R. D'Orsogna; P.J. Brantingham; G.E. Tita
Date Published
September 2009
15 pages
This study examined a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near repeat effects in crime data.
The models and results presented confirm that event dependence in the exact-repeat burglary effect exists and can be quantitatively distinguished from the random event hypothesis (REH) using appropriate counting procedures. A similar conclusion is drawn when examining near-repeat burglary events, which are significantly different from a corresponding null hypothesis at short distances between events, but are indistinguishable from the null hypothesis at greater distances. The general rate transition model combined with the approach to testing for the presence of behavior using a fixed-window counting procedure is potentially applicable to other types of repeat victimization. The results reinforce the view that repeat and near-repeat victimization may play a role in the nucleation of crime patterns in space and time and, as a consequence, may be an appropriate basis for designing crime prevention strategies. Figures and references


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