NOTE ON USING VICTIMIZATION RATES TO TEST DETERRENCE

• NCJ Number: 59665
• Author(s): I GOLDGERG
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 24 pages
• Grant Number(s): 77-N1-99-0071
• Corporate Author: Hoover Institution
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS TECHNICAL REPORT ELABORATES ON THE ERROR SOURCES IN THE UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS (UCR), DISCUSSES THE NATIONAL CRIME PANEL (NCP) CRIME RATES, AND USES THE NCP RATES TO TEST DETERRENCE.

Abstract

MEASUREMENT ERRORS CAN PRODUCE A SPURIOUS NEGATIVE EFFECT OF THE SANCTION PROBABILITY ON THE CRIME RATE BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF CRIMES APPEARS IN THE NUMERATOR OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE (THE CRIME RATE) AND IN THE DENOMINATOR OF THE EXPLANATORY VARIABLE (THE RATIO OF APPREHENSION TO CRIMES). IN ADDITION, BECAUSE OF THE WAY THE CRIME RATE AND SANCTION RISK ARE DEFINED, ANY VARIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT ERROR ACROSS THE UNITS OF OBSERVATION CAN PRODUCE A NEGATIVE EFFECT EVEN IF THERE IS IN FACT NO DETERRENT EFFECT. THUS MANY HAVE CLAIMED THAT THE UCR CRIME STATISTICS ARE SUBJECT TO SERIOUS MEASUREMENT ERRORS. UNDERREPORTING AND UNFOUNDING ARE TWO OF THE MAJOR SOURCES OF ERROR MENTIONED. THIS REPORT TESTS THE VALIDITY OF THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS BY USING THE NCP SURVEYS, SPECIFICALLY VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS. TIME-SERIES OBSERVATIONS ON 13 CITIES WERE POOLED WITH 13 CITIES COVERED ONCE RESULTING IN A SAMPLE OF 39 OBSERVATION POINTS. THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF CRIMINAL SANCTIONS ON CRIME RATE WAS FOUND TO BE SIGNIFICANT WHEN THE NCP VICTIMIZATION RATES, RATHER THAN THE CONVENTIONAL UCR CRIME RATES WERE USED AS A DATA BASE. MOREOVER, THE EFFECTS WERE SIGNIFICANT IN ALL 6 TYPES OF CRIMES COVERED BY THE NCP SURVEYS. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THE FINDINGS ARE SUBJECT TO SEVERAL QUALIFICATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE NCP CRIME RATES ARE PRESUMABLY FREE FROM BIASES INTRODUCED BY UNFOUNDING AND UNDERREPORTING TO POLICE, THE EXTENT OF RESPONSE ERROR TO THE NCP INTERVIEWER IS UNKNOWN. THE CLAIM THAT THERE IS A SYSTEMATIC BIAS IN THE NCP CRIME RATE DUE TO UNDERREPORTING OF MINOR INCIDENTS IN HIGH CRIME AREA WAS FOUND TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE FINDINGS. IT IS STATED IN CONCLUSION THAT FURTHER RESEARCH IS REQUIRED TO REFINE THE TESTS OF DETERRENCE BASED ON THE NCP VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS. NOTES AND TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (MJW)