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Predicting the Likelihood of Pretrial Re-Arrest for Violent Felony Offenses and Examining the Risk of Pretrial Failure Among New York City Defendants: An Analysis of the 2001 Dataset, Final Report

NCJ Number
Qudsia Siddiqi Ph.D.
Date Published
November 2006
117 pages
Performed in two phases, this analysis examined the likelihood of pretrial rearrest for violent felony offenses and developed models that would predict pretrial failure-to-appear (FTA) and/or rearrest among New York City defendants.
Study findings suggest that although the current New York State statute does not permit the consideration of public safety in making pretrial release or decision decisions, New York City, Criminal Justice Agency’s (CJA’s) new release on recognizance (ROR) recommendation system would predict both pretrial failure-to-appear (FTA) and pretrial rearrest. It was expected that defendants considered low risk for FTA by the ROR system would also be low risk for pretrial rearrest. Highlights of findings include: (1) in examining violent felony rearrests, 10 percent of the defendants were rearrested for a violent felony offense; (2) defendants initially arrested for drug offenses were less likely to be rearrested for violent felony offenses; (3) younger defendants were more likely to be rearrested for violent felony offenses; and (4) rearrest, in general and rearrest for violent felony offenses are empirically distinct events and need to be addressed separately. Pretrial release programs, used as an alternative to the traditional bail system, have their roots in the bail reform movement dating back to the early 1960s. As more jurisdictions began to release defendants on their own recognizance, public safety concerns grew. CJA began a series of research projects to better understand pretrial recidivism. The project later shifted its focus on pretrial rearrests made for violent felony offenses and the prediction of pretrial failure which included pretrial FTA and rearrest. This report presents the findings in the exploration of both issues. The analysis was based on data collected in 2001 in two phases. Phase I examined the likelihood of pretrial rearrest for violent felony offenses and Phase II, the analytical phase, assessed the risk of pretrial failure, both FTA and rearrest. Tables, references, and appendixes A-D


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