U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

Predicting Rearrests Among Felony Probationers: The Effects of Setting, Analyses and Probation Status

NCJ Number
Corrections Compendium Volume: 34 Issue: 1 Dated: Spring 2009 Pages: 1-4,6-10,42,48
Arthur J. Lurigio; David E. Olson; Jessica Snowden
Date Published
16 pages
This study identified predictors of rearrest for a large sample of adult probationers in Illinois by comparing relevant data for the State’s most populated county (Cook County) with the State’s other counties.
The study found that probationers discharged from probation in Cook County had a similar post-probation rearrest percentage compared with felony probationers outside of Cook County (54 percent) at the end of 4-year follow-up. Outside of Cook County, four major variables differentiated probationers who were rearrested while on probation from those who were not rearrested during the probation period: initial classification level, discharge classification level, educational level, and age (in order of significance). In Cook County, rearrests while on probation were related to number of previous convictions, age, drug-abuse problems, educational level, and employment status (in order of significance). Five variables were predictive of post-probation rearrest outside of Cook County: classification level, number of previous convictions, employment status, age, and educational level (in order of significance). For Cook County, predictive variables for post-probation rearrests were number of previous convictions, race, age, gang membership, and education (in order of significance). Given the differing predictors of rearrest by jurisdiction and probation status, risk assessment instruments should be crafted differently according to jurisdiction and probation status. The sampling frame consisted of the census of all adults discharged from probation in Illinois in November 2000. A total of 838 adult felony probationers were from Cook County, and 740 were from the rest of Illinois. All probation officers in Illinois completed a 43-item data collection form for each of their cases discharged in November 2000. 4 tables, 4 figures, and 42 references