NCJ Number
99006
Editor(s)
D P Farrington,
R Tarling
Date Published
1985
Length
283 pages
Annotation
Following a review of the literature, this book discusses methods of prediction and applied research in the prediction of recidivism, juvenile delinquency, criminality, self-injury, dangerousness, and criminal justice processing in the United States, Great Britain, and Canada.
Abstract
Ethical/moral issues and policy implications in criminology prediction are first discussed. The statistical efficiency of five methods of selecting and combining predictor variables is examined within the context of parole risk assessment. The extent to which measures of personality and institutional behavior can increase the efficiency of recidivism prediction is examined in a review of research. The development of a prediction scale and algorithm for juvenile absconding is described, as is the development of an instrument for predicting self-injury among institutionalized female juvenile offenders and its use in developing and assessing a behavioral intervention to prevent self-injury. Another study examines the possibility of predicting both official and self-reported juvenile delinquency and adult criminality and assesses five methods of prediction instrument development. Results are presented of a retrospective study of assessing dangerousness in mentally ill, violent offenders. A computer model of the Canadian criminal justice system and processes is described, and its uses are outlined. A final section examines statistical methods in criminological prediction, including prediction equations, statistical analyses, and shrinkage. Suggestions for future research conclude the book. Tabular data, chapter references, and author and subject indexes are provided. For specific chapters, see NCJ 99007-016.