PRISON POPULATION AND COSTS - ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTIONS TO 1980

• NCJ Number: 16267
• Author(s): W H ROBINSON; P SMITH; J WOLF
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 56 pages
• Corporate Author: Library of Congress
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL AND STATE PRISON POPULATION, PRICES OF PROVIDING CORRECTIONAL SERVICES, AND VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT CHANGES IN SCOPE AND QUALITY OF THOSE SERVICES.

Abstract

THE PROJECTIONS MADE IN THIS REPORT FORM THE BASE OF A BROADER MATHEMATICAL MODEL USED IN MAKING TOTAL COST PROJECTIONS. THE REPORT, WHICH IS DIVIDED INTO FIVE PARTS, FIRST FURNISHES BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE FEDERAL AND STATE PRISON SYSTEMS. INCLUDED IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS AND A DESCRIPTION OF CERTAIN POPULATION AND COST TRENDS OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS. A DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL USED IN MAKING THE PROJECTIONS CONTAINS A GENERAL DISCUSSION OF THE REASONS CHOSEN TO TAKE THE MODEL APPROACH AND A MORE SPECIFIC DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL AND METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED. AN OUTLINE OF THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY IS PRESENTED. FINDINGS SHOW THAT THE TOTAL PRISON POPULATION IN BOTH THE FEDERAL AND STATE PRISON SYSTEMS WILL FLUCTUATE DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1973 TO 1980. THE RESULTS ALSO INDICATE THAT IF THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF TIME SERVED WERE TO BE DOUBLED, THE NUMBER OF PRISONERS IN 1980 WOULD INCREASE FROM 26,300 TO OVER 608,000, AND THE TOTAL COST OF SERVING THE FEDERAL PRISON PUPULATION IN 1980 WILL APPROXIMATE 181.5 MILLION DOLLARS, IF SENTENCING POLICY IS UNCHANGED. THE REPORT THEN DISCUSSES THE CLOSE CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN THE EMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE CHANGE IN SIZE OF THE PRISON POPULATION.