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On Theory, Models, Model-Testing, and Estimation

NCJ Number
193673
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 17 Issue: 4 Dated: December 2001 Pages: 409-422
Author(s)
David F. Greenberg
Editor(s)
David McDowall
Date Published
December 2001
Length
14 pages
Annotation
In this article, David Greenberg responded to comments and criticisms of his paper which focused on a critique of theory, models, model testing, and estimation regarding the relationship between unemployment and crime rates.
Abstract
In an article written by David Greenberg, he identified numerous problems in studies on the impact of unemployment on crime rates by analyzing nationally aggregated data. He critiqued the regression equations used as not representing theoretical ideas and that the variables did not represent those available in official unemployment statistics. Comments and criticisms of Greenberg’s article from several criminologists called for a response from Greenberg. This article presented Greenberg’s response in the following areas: (1) use of aggregate data; (2) the translation of words into equations; (3) distinguishing between models; (4) short-term versus long-term effects; (5) crime as a unit-root process; (6) theory and research; (7) testing of theories; (8) aggregate data and the ecological fallacy; and (9) the testability of theories about the past. References

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