Classification, Prediction, and Criminal Justice Policy

• NCJ Number: 126671
• Author(s): S D Gottfredson; D M Gottfredson
• Date Published: 1990
• Length: 190 pages
• Grant Number(s): 86-IJ-CX-0048
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)

Annotation

Longitudinal data on more than 2,400 male offenders in California formed the basis of an analysis of the effects of selective incapacitation and other sentencing proposals on the crime rate and prison populations.

Abstract

The first data were collected in prisons in 1962-63, and the offenders' criminal data have been followed in the years since. Only about one-fifth of the men were never charged with another offense. On the average, the offenders were in the community for 21 years after prison release and arrested more than once every 3 years. Nearly one-third were confined again within a year. The analysis did not support the incapacitation proposals, because they involved both technical and ethical problems. However, it did indicate that the prison population could be reduced without endangering the public through a policy of selective deinstitutionalization based on the identification of low-risk, low-stakes offenders. Footnotes and attached tables and figures