Techniques for the Estimation of Illicit Drug-Use Prevalence: An Overview of Relevant Issues

• NCJ Number: 133786
• Date Published: 1992
• Author(s): Y Hser; M D Anglin; T D Wickens; M L Brecht; J Homer
• Length: 53 pages
• Grant Number(s): 90-IJ-CX-0014
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Issue Overview

Annotation

This review of methodological issues for obtaining reliable and valid estimates of drug use prevalence is intended for policymakers and other readers interested in evaluating the adequacy of estimates of illicit drug users.

Abstract

Prevalence estimation must consider population coverage, timeframe and geographic boundaries, types of drugs, and levels of use. Conventional data used for prevalence estimation center on national surveys and sampling, validity of drug-use indicators, and event-based and person-based data systems. Several prevalence estimation methods are selected for detailed discussion based on their historical importance and promising future applications. Static methods, including synthetic estimation and closed-population capture models, evaluate a population at a single point in time. Dynamic methods, including open-population capture models and system dynamics modeling, are used when a population is followed over time. 2 tables, 6 figures, and 68 references