U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Focused Deterrence and Program Fidelity: Evaluating the Impact of Detroit Ceasefire

NCJ Number
Justice Evaluation Journal Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Dated: 2021 Pages: 112-130
Giovanni M. Circo; Julie M. Krupa; Edmund McGarrell; Alaina De Biasi
Date Published
19 pages

This article discusses the research methodology and outcomes for a study examining the community-level effects of the Detroit, Michigan, Ceasefire initiative on fatal and non-fatal shooting victimization.


Focused deterrence programs, which concentrate community and police resources on small groups of high-risk offenders, have been identified in a number of cities as an effective method to reduce violent crime. In 2013, the city of Detroit began its own “Ceasefire” program in two of its most violent police precincts, which continued through 2019. This study examines the community-level effect of the 2013-2019 Detroit Ceasefire initiative on fatal and non-fatal shooting victimization. The authors apply a synthetic control design to account for the complex, disaggregated data to identify the effect of Ceasefire above and beyond the substantial decreases in gun violence observed throughout Detroit. They report finding marginal decreases in victimizations among those aged 15-24 and 25-34 in the year after Ceasefire was re-organized in 2015, but these effects were limited and largely converged to trends observed in the rest of the city. The authors discuss the results of this evaluation with a focus on the importance of effective implementation as well as the challenges of studying violence prevention strategies under ever evolving conditions. Publisher Abstract Provided