Journal of Family Violence Volume: 28 Issue: 6 Dated: August 2013 Pages: 623-634
This research evaluated the utility of a risk assessment tool.
Prognostic utility of MEGA was evaluated on a sample of 969 male and female youth without history of sexually-related probation or parole violation. Six month follow-up of 334 (34 percent) found a new sexually-related probation or parole violation occurred in 28 (8.4 percent). ROC findings showed Risk Scale significantly (p less than .001) predictive of a new violation (AUC=.71 [95 percent CI=.62 to .80]). MEGA Risk Scale scores added incremental prognostic utility over demographic variables (p less than 0.001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 31.5 percent. Contravention for youth ages 4 to 12 was defined as new reports of sexually abusive behaviors in three or more different locations, or sexual behaviors that included oral, anal, vaginal, direct skin to skin contact, and/or penetration. Post-hoc analysis found eight youth (21 percent) experienced these outcomes. Risk Scale was significantly predictive (AUC=.77 [95 percent C.I. = .60 to .96; p=0.016]). Abstract published by arrangement with Springer.
United States of America