NCJ Number
25073
Date Published
1972
Length
73 pages
Annotation
THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO OBTAIN CERTAIN TYPES OF INFORMATION ON 'TYPICAL' LOS ANGELES COUNTY JAIL SENTENCED INMATES AND TO RELATE THE INFORMATION TO RECIDIVISM RATE PROBABILITY.
Abstract
A SAMPLE OF APPROXIMATELY 2,100 OFFENDERS WHO HAD BEEN SENTENCED TO THE COUNTY JAIL AND RELEASED IN 1968 AND 1969 WAS USED IN THIS STUDY. CROSS TABULATION (CONTINGENCY) TABLES DEPICT THE NUMBER OF REPEAT OFFENSES AS A FUNCTION OF SEVERAL DESCRIPTIVE VARIABLES CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SAMPLE AND THE STATISTICAL RESULTS ARE DISCUSSED. THE PREDICTOR VARIABLES USED IN THIS STUDY INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING: SEX, AGE, ETHNIC GROUP, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, JUVENILE RECORD, PROBATION AND PAROLE STATUS AT TIME OF ARREST, AND NUMBER OF PRIOR CONVICTIONS, ALCOHOL ARRESTS, AND DRUG ARRESTS. THE PREDICTION MODEL USED IN THE STUDY WAS THE AUTOMATIC INTERACTION DETECTOR (AID). THIS TECHNIQUE USES A VARIATION OF ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AND STEPWISE MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES TO SUCCESSIVELY SUBDIVIDE THE TOTAL SAMPLE INTO SUBGROUPS IN SUCH A WAY AS TO MAXIMIZE THE TOTAL VARIANCE OF THE VARIABLE 'NUMBER OF REPEAT CONVICTED OFFENSES'. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE NUMBER OF PRIOR CONVICTIONS, THE PRESENCE OF A RECORD OF ARREST FOR ALCOHOL OR DRUG ABUSE, OF A JUVENILE OFFENSE, OR OF PAROLE VIOLATION, WHEN COMBINED FOR INDIVIDUALS, INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THE PROBABILITY THAT SUCH INDIVIDUALS WILL REPEAT SOME OFFENSE AND BE RECONVICTED AFTER RELEASE FROM THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY JAIL. VARIABLES SUCH AS SEX, ETHNIC GROUP, ETC., WERE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SURVIVE IN THE PREDICTION MODEL WHEN IN THE PRESENCE OF THE PRIOR OFFENSE RECORD VARIABLES. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)