NCJ Number
200640
Date Published
May 2003
Length
22 pages
Annotation
This study documented the characteristics of a set of juvenile offenders in Oregon who went on to become adult felons.
Abstract
The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) produces forecasts of youth and adult offenders by comparing juvenile and adult datasets to find offender matches. This report discusses those cases that were matched. The analysis is based on a study population of incarcerated youth who were born between 1976 and 1982 and who have an Oregon Youth Correctional Facility record. The study population included 3,335 individuals, 41.8 percent of who were found to have matching adult offense records. The analysis of the offense records of these 1,394 individuals revealed that approximately half of the oldest cohort, those born in 1976, had an adult felony record by their 25th year. Fewer female juveniles went on to have adult criminal records and only the African-American offenders had a higher percentage with adult records than the group as a whole. There was a tendency among the juvenile offenders to continue with the same type of crime into adulthood. Juvenile offenders who committed property offenses had the highest rate of adult criminality, followed by juveniles who committed burglary, robbery, and auto theft. Juveniles who were incarcerated for sex crimes had the lowest rates of adult criminality. Further analysis revealed that both age at release and length of time since release influenced adult criminality patterns. Generally, if an offender lasted 2 years post-release without another conviction, the prognosis for remaining offense-free improved. Finally, results indicated that juvenile property offenders who became adult property offenders were more likely to continue to recidivate throughout their adult criminal career than other types of offenders. The report notes that a more encompassing historical analysis would be useful.