NCJ Number
80254
Date Published
1981
Length
20 pages
Annotation
To predict future population levels of adult male correctional institutions in Nebraska through the year 2000, this report presents two methods of prediction, one using multiple-regression analysis and the other a logistic curve. Results using each method are discussed and illustrated.
Abstract
The data set to which the multiple-regression subroutine is applied employs the annual monthly average population of incarcerated adult males for fiscal years 1969-70 through 1979-80 as the dependent variable. Results are presented using three scenarios with different assumptions regarding economic events to come. The other method uses the logistic curve as a representation of growth patterns. Its series of projections cover the period 1950-2000; the independent variable is the rate of incarceration per 1,000 population at risk for various years. Both methods predict that the adult male institutional population will increase through the first half of this decade and decline thereafter. The logistic-curve method suggests a rise through fiscal year 1985 followed by a somewhat steeper decline while the multiple-regression method predicts that the increase will peak out in 1986 and also decline more sharply thereafter. The projections derived from the regression analysis should be regarded as the stronger of the two. Tables and graphs are included. (Author summary modified)