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Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections, Fiscal years 2014-2019

NCJ Number
Date Published
June 2014
33 pages
This report presents adult and juvenile correctional population projections for fiscal years 2014 through 2019 in preparation for the 2015 Eighty-fourth Texas Legislature.
Overall, both adult incarceration populations and juvenile State residential facility populations are expected to remain at or below capacity. Populations of adult felony community supervision and juvenile probation are also expected to remain stable, as are adult parole populations. Juvenile parole populations, however, are expected to continue their decline. Annual population numbers are presented for various correctional population types for each of the years 2015, 2016, and 2017. The percentage of change for each population type for the 3 years is noted. Population projections were estimated by using a statistical simulation model that incorporated up-to-date demographic and correctional information. The model simulates individual offender movement throughout the adult criminal and juvenile justice systems to produce aggregate population estimates for the next 5 fiscal years. Each offender's projected movement is governed by the State laws in place at the time of the offender's offense. Population projections assume all current policies, procedures, and laws will be constant throughout the projection period. In addition to correctional population projections, this report includes recent adult and juvenile crime statistics. An overview is provided of adult and juvenile arrests in calendar years 2011 and 2012. Additional detail is provided on adult and juvenile arrests, including arrests by offense type. 27 figures