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To Know the Unknown: The Decline in Homicide Clearance Rates, 19802000

NCJ Number
231143
Journal
Criminal Justice Review Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Dated: June 2010 Pages: 141-158
Author(s)
Graham C. Ousey; Matthew R. Lee
Date Published
June 2010
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Against the backdrop of the precipitous decline in urban homicide clearance over the past several decades, this study examined factors that might be linked to within-city, over-time variation in homicide clearance rates from 1980 to 2000.
Abstract
Conceptual arguments focusing on case-level characteristics of homicides as well as the broader macrosocial context are delineated and empirically tested. Results from a fixed-effects regression analysis reveal that changes in clearance rates are linked to changes in the situational characteristics of murder incidents such as the percentage of cases involving strangers, firearms, other felonies, and arguments. In addition, within-city changes in immigration are found to be associated with lower clearance rates, whereas drug market arrests are associated with higher clearance rates. Contrary to politically popular assertions, clearance rates do not appear to be a function of changes in police personnel or workload. Figure, table, appendixes, and references (Published Abstract)