This report discusses an analysis of State records estimates, statistical models developed to determine the reasonableness of estimates reported, and the feasibility of creating estimates for non-responding States and recommendations for future efforts at improving records estimates provided for the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).
The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Improvement Amendments Act of 2007 (NIAA) requires States to report reasonable estimates of the number of records available to the NICS. The National Center for State Courts (NCSC), in partnership with SEARCH, was awarded the NICS State Records Estimates Development and Validation Project to assist the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) in determining the reasonableness of State estimates and in creating estimates for non-reporting States. This report discusses the NCSC's and SEARCH's analysis of State record estimates, the statistical models developed to determine the reasonableness of estimates reported to BJS and the feasibility of creating estimates for non-responding States and recommendations for future efforts at improving record estimates provided for NICS. This project was supported by Grant No. 2009-NS-BX-K050 awarded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the US Department of Justice.
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