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Reflections on the Crime Decline: Lessons for the Future?

NCJ Number
197159
Author(s)
Jeremy Travis; Michelle Waul
Date Published
August 2002
Length
49 pages
Annotation
This report addresses trends in the reduction of violent and property crimes in recent years.
Abstract
Focusing on recent reductions in violent and property crimes, this report summarizes trends in American crime rates and proposes future crime reduction strategies. Divided into three sections, this report begins with a graphic presentation of declining trends in violent, domestic, youth, gun, and property crimes. Addressing recent developments in crime rates, the authors argue that since the 1990’s, crime rates, especially of violent crimes, has fallen to levels reminiscent of the 1960’s. Explaining the falling crime rates, the authors maintain that demographic shifts, the evolution of the drug culture, the changing labor market, gun control policies, prison and jail expansions, and policing changes are all factors that contribute to crime reduction. Turning to challenges for the future, this report contends that the weakening economy, large number of returning prisoners, persistent urban poverty, and the growing youth population may all lead to an increase in violent and property crime rates. In order to combat these challenges, the authors propose capitalizing on the strengths of youths and communities, coordinating the efforts of major crime prevention agencies, revitalizing community corrections, and improving policing in order to keep crime in check. This report concludes that various agencies need to work together and stay involved in order to keep crime rates in check. Bibliographic information concerning forum participants and raw data for the earlier graphs are presented at the end of this report, in two appendices.