Regression Analysis Estimating the Number of Drug-using Arrestees in 185 US Cities

• NCJ Number: 241125
• Journal: American Journal of Public Health Volume: 88 Issue: 3 Dated: March 1998 Pages: 487-490
• Author(s): Yih-Ing Hser, Ph.D.; Michael Prendergast, Ph.D.; Douglas Anglin, Ph.D.; Jane K. Chen, M.S.; Shih-Chao Hsieh, M.P.H.
• Date Published: March 1998
• Length: 4 pages
• Grant Number(s): 1991-IJ-CX-K009; 1992-IJ-CX-K018; DA00139; DA00146
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); National Institute on Drug Abuse
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Logistic regression analysis was applied to social indicators from 1990 census data in order to estimate the number of drug users among arrestees in the 185 largest cities in the United States in 1990.  

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to provide population-based estimates of drug-using arrestees in the 185 largest US cities. METHODS: A prevalence model for drug-using arrestees was developed by relating selected social indicators (from 1990 census data) and drug use rates (from Drug Use Forecasting program data) via logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: It was estimated that in 1990, across the 185 cities, about 925,000 arrestees used cocaine, 317,000 used opiates, 213,000 used amphetamines, 389,000 were drug injectors, and 1,296,000 used an illicit drug. CONCLUSIONS: This approach represents a cost-efficient method for prevalence estimation based on empirically demonstrable relationships between social indicators and drug use rates.

(Publisher abstract provided.)