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Why Did the Crime Rate Decrease Through 1999? (And Why Might It Decrease or Increase in 2000 and Beyond)

NCJ Number
190695
Author(s)
Leonard A. Marowitz
Date Published
December 2000
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This paper critically reviews articles by scholars and media writers that offered explanations for the recent decrease (1991-1999) in the crime rate.
Abstract
Synopses of these articles were grouped into 11 explanatory categories drawn from the FBI and the author of this paper. One category was the effective strength of law enforcement agencies manifested in proactive community policing; however, the decline in non-gun homicides was apparently part of a long-term trend and did not result from order-maintenance policing. The substantial decrease in crime rates in cities without order-maintenance policing indicated that other factors were key contributors to the crime-rate decline. A second category was the administrative and investigative emphases of law enforcement. Cities with efficient community policing and computerized mapping systems have been effective in pinpointing high-crime areas. A third category was the policies of other components of the criminal justice system (prosecutorial, judicial, correctional, and probational). Court intervention has been most effective when supported by efficient probation departments and social services. Other categories of explanation examined were citizens' attitudes toward crime; population density and degree of urbanization; variations in composition of the population, particularly youth concentration; economic conditions, including median income, poverty level, and job availability; cultural factors and education, recreational, and religious characteristics; family conditions with respect to divorce and family characteristics; drug use; and weapons.