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Toward a Behavioral Model of "Homegrown" Radicalization Trajectories

NCJ Number
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2016 Pages: 67-83
Date Published
January 2016
17 pages
This research note presents a dynamic risk assessment model of homegrown terrorists.
The model was tested in a study of convicted "homegrown" American terrorism offenders inspired by Al Qaeda's ideology. The New York Police Department model developed by Silber and Bhatt was chosen as the basis for creating a typology of overt and detectable indicators of individual behaviors widely thought to be associated with extremism. Twenty-four specific cues associated with each stage of radicalization were used to code and estimate the sequencing of behaviors and the duration of the average radicalization trajectory. Sixty-eight cases have been analyzed thus far. A decision was made to publish the initial results when it became apparent that the model was an effective tool for the evaluation of terrorist offenders. (Publisher abstract modified)

Date Published: January 1, 2016