NCJ Number
178861
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Dated: Summer 1999 Pages: 401-415
Date Published
1999
Length
15 pages
Annotation
Crime trends in the Netherlands during 1950-93 were examined by means of time-series analysis to estimate relationships between recorded crime and demographic, economic, and policy developments, with emphasis on the relationship between crime and economic well being.
Abstract
The research used police statistics, as well as variables that measured victim propensities to report crime and police propensities to record it. The main independent variables were economic welfare as measured by households' per-person consumption, the number of unemployed people, the male population in four age categories, the numbers of police, and offense clearance rates. The research tested the hypotheses that: (1) a higher growth in consumption leads to a lower growth in the number of thefts due to lowered incentives for criminals (motivation effect); (2) a higher growth in consumption leads to a higher growth in thefts because more goods are available (opportunity effect); and (3) a higher growth in consumption leads to more violent offenses because it leads to more outdoor activities (routine-activity effect). Results revealed that the motivation effect was significant for total theft, qualified theft, burglary, theft from shops, and pickpocket theft. In addition, the opportunity effect was significant for car thefts. Moreover, the routine-activity effect was significant for criminal damage. These estimated relationships were based on historical relationships. However, the model also permits forecasts for future scenarios of economic and demographic development. Table, appended tables, list of data sources, and 24 references (Author abstract modified)