NCJ Number
80576
Journal
American Economist Dated: (Fall 1979) Pages: 37-43
Date Published
1979
Length
7 pages
Annotation
This article subjects the economic theory of arson to an empirical test by specifying a model that relates arson activity to economic conditions.
Abstract
The model incorporates the idea that the desirability of committing arson is related to aggregate economic activity and that the level of incendiary activity depends on the perceived costs of engaging in criminal behavior. Multivariate statistical analysis is employed to identify those aspects of the business cycle which have the greatest association with the frequency of incendiary fires. Quarterly time series data for Nashville (Davidson County), Tenn., from 1963 to 1976 are used to estimate the model. Quarterly dummy variables are used to capture arson's seasonal component. Results indicate that measures of aggregate economic activity, insured loss, and the number of arsons have risen through time. Arson embodies various economic motives, but a functional relationship between arson and the state of the economy was not seen. Once time trends and seasonal variation are removed, little remains to suggest an economic link to arson. Suggestions for further research are included. Tables, notes, and 13 references are provided.