ART AND METHODS OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORECASTING

• NCJ Number: 53253
• Author(s): A R BECK
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 357 pages
• Grant Number(s): 77-NI-99-0041
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Thesis/Dissertation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY - DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

Annotation

THIS STUDY EXAMINES FORECASTING METHODS FROM SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL FIELDS THAT COULD BE APPLIED TO PREDICTING PRISON POPULATIONS AND OTHER CRIMINAL JUSTICE STATISTICS. IT IS AIMED AT RESEACHERS, PLANNERS, AND ADMINISTRATORS.

Abstract

THIS STUDY BEGINS WITH AN EXPLANATION OF FORECASTING, ITS REGARD FOR CERTAINTY, TIME, AND SOCIAL CONSTRAINTS, ITS OBJECTIVITY OF METHOD, AND ITS USE OF TECHNIQUES IN PLACE OF JUDGEMENT. THEN 16 FORECASTING METHODS ARE SELECTED FOR USE IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING AND PRESENTED IN 10 MODULES THAT ARE GROUPED INTO 3 GENERAL CATEGORIES: SUBJECTIVE METHODS, NAIVE METHODS (THESE IGNORE REASONS FOR EXISTING PATTERNS OF PRISON POPULATION GROWTH), AND CAUSAL METHODS. EACH FORECASTING METHOD IS PRESENTED AND EVALUATED ACCORDING TO A UNIFORM FORMAT AND IS ILLUSTRATED USING EITHER DATA OBTAINED AND ANALYZED FOR THE STUDY OR BY EXAMPLES DRAWN FROM CORRECTIONAL RESEARCH. SOME OF THE TECHNIQUES EXAMINED ARE DELPHI TECHNIQUES AND MATRIX FORECASTING, BOTH EXPLORATORY SUBJECTIVE METHODS WHICH SEEK TO DETERMINE WHAT THE FUTURE MAY GROW INTO; SUBJECTIVE EXTRAPOLATION, A PROCESS INCORPORATING SUBJECTIVE PROJECTION AND INVOLVING IDENTIFICATION OF IMPLICIT FORECASTING PROCESSES; LEAST SQUARES, A NAIVE MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION, FLOW MODELS AND SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION FORECASTING, ALL CAUSAL METHODS CONCERNED WITH THE CAUSES OF PRISON POPULATION GROWTH AND WHICH EXPLORE SOCIAL FORCES AND INTERNAL PRESSURES CONTRIBUTING TO GROWTH. THE STUDY OF FORECASTING METHODS INDICATES THE NEED TO AVOID EQUATING QUALITY OF THE FORECAST TO COMPLEXITY OF CALCULATION AND TO STANDARDS BORROWED FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS IN BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH. THE SUBJECTIVE EXTRAPOLATION METHOD PRESENTS THE BASIC CONSIDERATIONS THAT THE ANALYSIS SHOULD ADDRESS IN FORECASTING PRISON POPULATION BY NAIVE AND CAUSAL METHODS. RESEARCHERS SHOULD CONSIDER MULTIALTERNATIVES AND NORMATIVE FORECASTING. PROBLEMS THAT ARISE IN FORECASTING BOTH FROM TECHNIQUES AND FROM WITHIN THE CORRECTIONAL ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXAMINED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--DAG)