NCJ Number
147508
Journal
Crime and Delinquency Volume: 40 Issue: 2 Dated: (April 1994) Pages: 154- 174
Date Published
1994
Length
21 pages
Annotation
Data from probationers under supervision in Austin, Texas were studied to compare the predictive accuracy of a traditional, objective probation risk assessment instrument with the considerably more subjective, interview-based Client Management Classification (CMC) System, a tool with no previously noted applications to risk prediction.
Abstract
The CMC was developed in the mid-1970's by psychologists Lerner and Arling. It involves a semistructured interview that takes approximately 45 minutes to administer and 5 minutes to score. Scores assign participants to one of five classifications: casework/control, environmental structure, limit setting, selective intervention-treatment, and selective intervention-situational. The participants were all admitted to one adult probation agency between January and June 1991. The analysis considered four outcomes: revocations, motions to revoke, rearrests, and abscondings. Results indicated that the CMC was much more effective than the traditional instrument. The CMC was particularly successful in minimizing false positives, the probationers incorrectly predicted to be high risks. Findings suggested that offender risk-assessment instruments of a national scope are possible. Figure, table, notes, and 18 references (Author abstract modified)