NCJ Number
67374
Journal
JOURNAL OF CORRECTIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST Dated: (FALL 1972) Pages: 108-134
Date Published
1972
Length
29 pages
Annotation
THIS EXPLORATORY STUDY ANALYZED THE ABILITY OF THE CORRECTIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST TO MAKE PREDICTIVE STATEMENTS ABOUT INMATES REGARDING THEIR PAROLE OUTCOME.
Abstract
THE RELATIONSHIP OF SEVERAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES TO A MAJOR DEPENDENT VARIABLE--PAROLE SUCCESS AND FAILURE--WAS EXAMINED. FACTORS ANALYZED WERE REFERRENT'S PAROLE POTENTIAL VERSUS TIME SERVED, CORRECTIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST'S ABILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS IN PREDICTING PAROLE OUTCOME, AND AREAS WHERE PSYCHOLOGISTS TENDED TO ERR IN THEIR PREDICTIONS. SUBJECTS WERE REFERRED INMATES FOR WHOM THE PAROLE AUTHORITY HAD REQUESTED A PREPAROLE PERSONALITY EVALUATION. DATA WERE ALSO BASED ON ALL REFERRALS WHO RECEIVED PAROLES. THE 11 PSYCHOLOGISTS PERFORMING THE EVALUATIONS WERE RELATIVELY SOPHISTICATED JUDGES WITH AT LEAST A MASTER'S DEGREE IN GENERAL PSYCHOLOGY. ANALYSIS OF THE DATA WAS CONDUCTED WITH NONPARAMETRIC METHODS. RESULTS SHOWED A HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PAROLE PROGNOSTIC STATEMENTS AND THE ABILITY OF REFERRALS TO COMPLETE PAROLE. CORRECTIONAL PSYCHOLOGISTS WERE ABLE TO PREDICT PAROLE OUTCOME TO A RESPECTABLE DEGREEE, BUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PAROLE PROGNOSIS AND PAROLE OUTCOME WAS NOT PERFECT. THE NUMBER OF PREPAROLE PERSONALITY EVALUATIONS PROGRESSIVELY INCREASED WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN REFERRAL PAROLE POTENTIAL. WITH CHANGES IN INMATE PAROLE POTENTIAL, THE PSYCHOLOGISTS' USE AND EMPHASIS ON CERTAIN PROGNOSTIC CATEGORIES SHIFTED FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE PROGNOSTICATIONS. THEIR PROGNASTIC STATEMENTS TENDED TO TRACK RATHER THAN GO BEYOND CHANGES IN INMATE PAROLE POTENTIAL. JUDGES INDIVIDUALLY DID NOT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR ABILITY TO PREDICT PAROLE OUTCOME. JUDGES SEEMED BEST ABLE TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN INMATES WITH THE HIGHEST ABILITY RATHER THAN THE LOWEST ABILITY TO COMPLETE PAROLE. JUDGES TENDED TO OVERESTIMATE GOOD PAROLE CANDIDATES AND UNDERESTIMATE POOR PAROLE CANDIDATES. A FINAL RESULT WAS THE HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT AND PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF REFERRALS SEEN ANNUALLY WHO WERE PAROLED, INDICATING THAT ALTHOUGH INMATE PAROLE POTENTIAL WAS DECREASING STEADILY, THE INCREASING RECOGNITION OF THE VALUE OF PREPAROLE EVALUATION WAS RESULTING IN INCREASES IN REFERRALS. FOOTNOTES, TABULAR DATA, AND 14 REFERENCES ACCOMPANY THE REPORT. (MJW)