NCJ Number
59894
Journal
Home Office Research Bulletin Issue: 7 Dated: (1979) Pages: 36-41
Date Published
1979
Length
6 pages
Annotation
THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, ESPECIALLY CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF YOUNG MALES IN A SOCIETY, HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON CRIME RATES.
Abstract
EXPENDITURE PLANNING FOR CRIME PREVENTION AND POLICYING CAN ONLY BE AS EFFECTIVE AS THE SOCIAL FORECASTS USED IN THE PLANNING, AND SUCH FORECASTS MAY BE INCORRECT. THE MOST COMMON TECHNIQUE IN FORECASTING IS THE EXTRAPOLATION OF EXISTING TRENDS IN THE SOCIETY, BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ALL OTHER THINGS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT. SUCH CONSISTENCY RARELY OCCURS, THUS INVALIDATING THE FORECASTS. THE EFFECTS OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE MAY HAVE SERIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC IMPLICATIONS IN THE AREAS OF EDUCATION AND SOCIAL SERVICES. BECAUSE OF THE DISPROPORTIONAL INVOLVEMENT OF YOUNG MALES IN CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES, A DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF THESE PERSONS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OFFENSE RATES. AFTER A PREDICTED PEAK IN THE NUMBER OF MALES AGED 17 TO 20 IN THE YEAR 1983, THE NUMBER OF SUCH PERSONS IN THE POPULATION WILL DECLINE SHARPLY. HOWEVER, CRIME IS MORE PREVALENT AMONG PERSONS AT THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE SOCIAL SPECTRUM, AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES WILL NOT BE SPREAD THROUGHOUT ALL SEGMENTS OF THE POPULATION, THUS CREATING ONLY A LIMITED EFFECT ON CRIME RATES. INCREASES IN THE REPORTING OF CRIME DURING THE 1980'S MAY ALSO AFFECT THE CRIME STATISTICS. AN INCREASE IN SOCIAL AFFLUENCE OR IN UNEMPLOYMENT WILL ALSO AFFECT CRIMINALITY, ALTHOUGH A 'SLOW GROWTH' ECONOMY MAY INHIBIT CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES BY CONFINING OPPORTUNITIES. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (TWK)