NCJ Number
79295
Journal
Nederlands Juristenblad Volume: 54 Issue: 3 Dated: (January 20, 1979) Pages: 45-49
Date Published
1979
Length
5 pages
Annotation
Future trends of crime in the Netherlands are extrapolated from past crime statistics prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Abstract
Only minor offenses are considered. They are classified according to whether they affect property, persons, morals, or public order; according to whether victims are multiple, or the crime is victimless; and according to the type of offender. Predictions indicate that the number of crimes related to disturbances of public order or public behavior should increase, and that the number of convictions for offenses against persons' life and limb should continue to fall. Property offenses will continue to be the most prevalent crime type quantitatively. Even though inequalities in the distribution of income and therefore relative deprivation are expected to be reduced in the coming decade, property crime rates will probably continue to grow as the consequence of frustrated aspirations. The number of convictions for sexual offenses will continue to drop because of increased tolerance toward citizens' sexual autonomy, and convictions for disturbing the peace will probably remain the same. As the average age of the population is dropping, the trend toward an even earlier beginning of delinquent activities will continue. The discrepancy between the fear of crime and risk of victimization is likely to remain, and it is uncertain whether government measures such as increased local surveillance can control the problem. New forms of crime may result from improved investigative procedures, more thorough media information, and criminal innovation. Changes in crime forms are a consequence of new criminal laws, of increased political pressure to enforce existing laws, of technical innovations, and of increases in terrorist activities.