NCJ Number
190652
Date Published
September 2001
Length
61 pages
Annotation
This paper discusses asymmetric and terrorist attacks with radiological and nuclear weapons.
Abstract
The paper states that the current threat of conventional attack is notably higher than the risk of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attack, and the use of relatively low levels of CBRN attack is higher than the risk of high levels of CBRN attack. The analysis of the nature and lethality of the threat changes considerably if states conduct covert CBRN attacks or give them to proxies or independent movements. It also changes over time as technology makes biological weapons more available, and as the time horizon for estimating the risk of some form of high level CBRN attack is extended to the quarter of the country that U.S. planners must consider in shaping long-term programs and research and development activities. The paper examines the problem of determining future methods of attack and the needed response, with illustrative attack scenarios using conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. It examines radiological weapons as a means of attack, the practical chances of using radiological weapons, and the practical risks and effects of using radiological weapons. It also examines nuclear weapons as a means of attack, specifically: (1) lethality and effectiveness; (2) the threat from state actors, proxies, terrorists, and extremists, and the problem of getting the weapon; (3) delivery; (4) dealing with the risk and impact of nuclear attacks; and (5) problems in responding to a nuclear attack (cost-effectiveness of real-world options). It includes Department of Defense estimates of potential national threat intentions involving nuclear weapons from China, India, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and Syria. Notes, tables, figures