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Dynamic Risk Assessment: A Validation Study

NCJ Number
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 41 Issue: 2 Dated: March/April 2013 Pages: 115-124
Robert D. Morgan; Daryl G. Kroner; Jeremy F. Mills; Catherine Serna; Brendan McDonald
Date Published
April 2013
10 pages

This study evaluated recidivism as a process and focused on the ability of dynamic factors to predict post-release outcomes.


Findings from this study on the ability of dynamic factors to predict post-release outcomes include the following: adequate reliability was established for the self-report and rating measures used in the study, however due to the unstable nature of the dynamic factors, convergent validity for selected rated measures was not achieved; the dynamic variables did not improve the study's ability to predict failure as compared to the predictive ability of static variables; and changes in dynamic functioning were not associated with changes in community outcomes. Data for this study were obtained from a sample of male offenders, n=133, paroled from correctional facilities between June 11, 2008, and January 31, 2011. A seven-wave data collection procedure was used to measure participants' level of criminal risk and assess their post-release outcomes. Analysis of the data indicates that dynamic factors do not contribute to the predictive powers of static variables, and that changes in offenders dynamic functioning are not associated with changes in post-release outcomes. Study limitations are discussed. Tables and references