ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME AND POLICE - SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS

• NCJ Number: 34748
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1976) Pages: 48-63
• Author(s): J I Chapman
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 16 pages
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS PAPER DEVELOPS A GENERAL THREE-EQUATION SIMULTANEOUS MODEL FOR EXAMINING THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME CAUSATION, POLICE OUTPUT, AND DEMAND FOR POLICE USING TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION.

Abstract

THE MODEL'S DEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE CRIME RATES, ARREST RATES, AND PER CAPITA POLICE. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES INCLUDED ENVIRONMENTAL, SERVICE, AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS. IT IS FOUND THAT RELATIVE ILLEGAL WAGES (THE EXPECTED PAY OFF FROM COMMITTING VARIOUS TYPES OF CRIMES) HAVE A STRONG POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON CRIME, BUT POLICE ACTIVITY (ARRESTS) CAN RETARD CRIME. FURTHER POLICE LABOR (WAGES) IS POSITIVELY RELATED TO POLICE OUTPUT (NUMBER OF PER CAPITA POLICE) AND PROPERTY CRIMES ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN OTHER TYPES OF FELONIES IN INCREASING THE DEMAND FOR POLICE. A SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND A LIST OF DATA SOURCES ARE INCLUDED.