NCJ Number
145198
Journal
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism Volume: 16 Issue: 3 Dated: (1993) Pages: 201-218
Date Published
1993
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Ethnic conflict in the Russian Federation could thwart the process of transition toward a market-oriented, pluralist system and have major implications for the national interests of the United States.
Abstract
The United States would benefit from the global demonstration of a successful transition, having Russia as a cooperative international partner, garnering the mutual economic benefits of increased bilateral trade and investment, and preventing chaos and the proliferation of tiny ethnic countries armed with nuclear weapons. However, ethnic conflict could block the transition process, most probably in conjunction with paralysis at the country's political center. Debilitating, lengthy stalemate in Moscow would stimulate several centrifugal waves in the periphery, probably beginning with the Federation's Republics with non- Russian majorities and external frontiers. Subsequent separatist efforts would encompass enclave Russian-majority Republics and other areas. However, the non-Russian separatists would probably not leave the Russian political entity permanently unless the paralysis at the center were so lengthy or severe that it undermined Russian nationalism in favor of regionalism as the dominant element in Russian political culture. Notes and 23 references (Author abstract modified)