Evaluating Criminal Justice Policies: A Simulation Model Approach

• NCJ Number: 121911
• Author(s): J P Jarvis
• Date Published: 1989
• Length: 44 pages
• Corporate Author: Virginia Dept of Corrections
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Technical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Draft of paper presented at the 41st Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Reno, Nev., November 8-12, 1989

Annotation

This discussion of methods of assessing the impact of criminal justice policies on future inmate populations presents a model that is designed to assess both existing policy and proposed policy changes and compares the model with other commonly used methods.

Abstract

The model was initially developed by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. It is a stochastic entity simulation model, which uses random numbers to assign values to factors that affect the length of time an offender will be in prison or on parole. The model is also designed to mimic the legislative and administrative processes that control the systematic flow of individuals through prison, parole, and re-entry into the community. It uses the Monte Carlo simulation technique; covers all major offense categories; and projects both prison and parole populations as well as movements between, into, and out of these two populations. Lists of assumptions used, figures, tables, and discussions of two other models.