NCJ Number
57837
Date Published
1978
Length
240 pages
Annotation
AN EXAMINATION OF HOW THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY IS USED IN MAKING LEGAL DECISIONS IN SITUATIONS OF UNCERTAINTY IS PROVIDED IN THIS 1978 BRITISH BOOK DESIGNED FOR LAWYERS AND NON-LAWYERS.
Abstract
THE LEGAL SYSTEM IS CONCERNED WITH MAKING DECISIONS, OFTEN MADE IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT HAPPENED OR WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. THEREFORE, DECISIONS ARE BASED ON CONSIDERATION OF PROBABILITY BOTH AS TO PAST AND FUTURE EVENTS. HOWEVER, AT PRESENT, LITTLE ATTENTION IS DEVOTED TO EDUCATING LAWYERS HOW TO MAKE SUCH DECISIONS. THE JUDICIAL DECISIONMAKING PROCESS DOES NOT DIFFER IN ITS ESSENTIALS FROM THAT USED BY ORDINARY CITIZENS. HOWEVER, WHILE THE COURT HAS THE POWER TO COMPEL TESTIMONY, IT IS ALSO BOUND BY RULES OF EVIDENCE WHICH EXCLUDE SOME INFORMATION WHICH AN ORDINARY CITIZEN COULD USE. IN BOTH CIVIL AND CRIMINAL CASES THERE ARE NUMEROUS POINTS IN THE COURSE OF A TRIAL DURING WHICH DECISIONS MUST BE MADE ON THE BASIS OF PROBABILITY AND ON THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE EVIDENCE. THEREFORE IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE RULES OF EVIDENCE TO QUESTIONS OF PROBABILITY. LAW AND LOGIC DO NOT NECESSARILY COINCIDE. RULES FOR THE ADMISSIBILITY OF EVIDENCE AND THEORIES FOR DETERMINING RELEVANCE HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY FOR DETERMINING ADMISSIBILITY OF SIMILAR FACT EVIDENCE. COURTS HAVE DEVELOPED RULES OF PRESUMPTION WHICH ENABLE THEM TO ASSUME THAT IF CERTAIN FACTS ARE PROVED, THEN OTHER MAY BE PRESUMED TO ALSO EXIST. THE PRESUMPTIONS WHICH A COURT CAN MAKE, HOWEVER, ARE GOVERNED BY THE TYPE OF CASE BEING HEARD AND THE STANDARDS OF PROOF REQUIRED. COURTS ALSO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH DECISIONS CAN BE BASED ON THE EXPERIENCES OF JURORS AND THE EXPERTISE OF PROFESSIONAL WITNESSES. WHILE EFFORTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO USE MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITIES, IT IS EVIDENT THAT COURTS WILL ONLY GIVE ADEQUATE WEIGHT TO PROBABILITIES WHEN THEY UNDERSTAND THE MATHEMATICAL PROCESS. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (KCP)