NCJ Number
81948
Editor(s)
K O Boyum,
S Krislov
Date Published
1980
Length
223 pages
Annotation
The Panel on Legislative Impact on Counts examined the feasibility of estimating the effect of new legislation on courts and determined that impact prediction cannot be accurate because it is impossible to predict the behavior of litigants.
Abstract
The Panel investigated the potential and limitations of estimating caseloads from past experience, building structural models of the court system, and charting litigative behaviors; and assessed the extent to which such techniques are presently usable. It also considered the advantages and disadvantages of estimations at different points in the policy process (shortly after legislation is adopted, for instance). The principal conclusion is that the basic knowledge necessary to estimate the impact of broad classes of legislation is lacking. Useful estimation requires predicting the behavior of numerous elements in society, the interactions of which are too complex to accurately forecast. The panel recommends against requiring formal impact statements for legislation. However, selective impact analyses could be effective prior to and immediately following the adoption of a new law to estimate its approximate costs or to preplan the needs of the judicial system . Appendixes include structural models and an impact analysis and caseload projection at the State level. Tabular data and an index are supplied.