FUTURE OF POLITICAL SUBSTATE VIOLENCE (FROM TERRORISM THEORY AND PRACTICE, 1979, BY YONAH ALEXANDER ET AL - SEE NCJ-57914)

• NCJ Number: 57921
• Author(s): D CARLTON
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 30 pages
• Corporate Author: Westview Press, Inc
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM IS EXAMINED WITH RESPECT TO TECHNICAL INNOVATION, SELF-IMPOSED RESTRAINTS BY TERRORISTS, POSSIBLE NATIONAL COUNTERMEASURES, AND INTERNATIONAL MEANS OF CONTROLLING IT.

Abstract

A TERRORIST IS ANY PERPETRATOR OF SUBSTATE VIOLENCE WHOSE MOTIVES ARE BROADLY POLITICAL, EVEN IF THEY ARE COMMONLY DESCRIBED IN OTHER TERMS, SUCH AS GUERRILLA. WITHIN THIS DEFINITION, SOVEREIGN STATES CANNOT CAUSE 'TERROR' IN THEIR OWN BOUNDARIES, THOUGH THEY MAY SPONSOR OR ARRANGE FOR TERRORIST ACTS TO BE COMMITTED IN OTHER STATES. PRESENT AND FUTURE GROUPS GRADUALLY WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED AND DEVASTING CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE MANY MORE NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES BEFORE A TERRORIST GROUP OBTAINS NUCLEAR ARMS. MOST OF THE MORE IMPORTANT TERRORIST GROUPS ARE AT THE PRESENT RELATIVELY RESTRAINED IN THEIR USE OF VIOLENCE, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE FUTURE. COUNTERMEASURES AVAILABLE TO COMBAT TERRORISM INCLUDE MEDIA RESTRAINT IN REPORTING INCIDENTS, PREVENTIVE SECURITY MEASURES IN PUBLIC PLACES SUCH AS AIRPORTS, AND FULL-SCALE COOPERATION BETWEEN SOVEREIGN STATES. THE BEHAVIOR OF SOVEREIGN STATES IN RELATION TO TERRORISM OCCURRING OUTSIDE THEIR OWN FRONTIERS IS CRUCIAL. PRESENTLY, THE TENDENCY IS TOWARDS A STEADY INCREASE IN SPONSORSHIP OF TERRORISM. SEVERAL TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS ARE MADE: (1) TERRORISM IN GENERAL IS LIKELY TO GROW BUT SOMEWHAT UNEVENLY; (2) SOME COUNTRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS VULNERABLE THAN OTHERS, EVEN WITHIN IDEOLOGICAL SYSTEMS; (3) SPONSORSHIP OF TERRORIST GROUPS MAY INCREASINGLY BE SEEN IN DRAMATIC FORM ONLY IN THE THIRD WORLD ARENA; (4) STATE-SPONSORED TERRORISTS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISCOURAGED FROM OBTAINING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, AND UNSPONSORED GROUPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET THEM AT ALL; AND (5) THE SCOPE FOR UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AMONG GOVERNMENTS IS SEVERALY LIMITED, BUT AD HOC ARRANGEMENTS TO DEAL WITH PARTICULAR ASPECTS SUCH AS AIR HIJACKING MAY BE ATTAINABLE. REFERENCE NOTES ARE PROVIDED. (PRG)