NCJ Number
51206
Date Published
1973
Length
80 pages
Annotation
VARIOUS SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL FORCES THAT MAY SHAPE FUTURE DEMANDS FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL AND, ULTIMATELY, DEMANDS FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE FACULTY ARE ASSESSED.
Abstract
EMPLOYER SURVEYS, BUDGET FORECASTS, POPULATION TRENDS, EXISTING MANPOWER POOLS, AND SOCAL FACTORS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASES OR DECREASES IN CRIME AND HENCE, IN THE NEED FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL ARE EXAMINED. EMPLOYER DEMANDS SHOULD BE BASED ON CONSERVATIVE BUDGET ESTIMATES, AND FACULTY ESTIMATES SHOULD BE EQUALLY CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE ATTRITION RATES ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED AND THE SUPPLY OF GRADUATES WITH ADVANCED DEGREES IS GREATER THAN NEEDED. THE STABILIZATION OF POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF MALES AGED 15 TO 30 IS SEEN AS A FACTOR WHICH MAY REDUCE CRIME. HOWEVER, THE ACCELERATION OF URBAN SPRAWL AND THE DECLINE OF SOCIAL COHESION ARE FACTORS WHICH MAY INCREASE CRIME. WHILE SOME HAVE POSTULATED THAT INCREASED TECHNOLOGY WILL REDUCE CRIME, IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THIS TECHNOLOGY MAY PUT FURTHER STRESS ON SOCIETY AND ACTUALLY INCREASE CRIME. THE DEMAND FOR POLICE OFFICERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE, BUT A CHANGE IN POLICE PHILOSOPHY DEEMPHASIZING REHABILITATION AND BUDGET PRIORITIES WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT FEWER OF THESE OFFICERS WILL HAVE COLLEGE EDUCATIONS. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THIS DECLINE IN DEMAND COUPLED WITH A DECREASE IN LEAA FUNDING WILL LEAD TO SHRINKING ENROLLMENTS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE EDUCATION PROGRAMS AND SMALLER DEMAND FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE FACULTY. FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED FOR EACH CHAPTER. (GLR)